USTreasury primer: previously published data from 2010

Below is a primer I put together to gauge the true debt situation of the US back in 2010. It was worthy enough that it gained the attention of a much larger reputable media website. Before I post the latest and greatest USTreasury analysis, here is what was compiled in 2010.

After following US market fundamentals for the last two years I have wanted  to know more about how the US Treasuries work. The charts below show an  alternative view on the repayment schedule of principal for US Treasury Notes  currently on issue.

Using data from the US Treasury bond auction results, I sorted and grouped  all the auction results first by maturity date and then by term. When you plot  this as a bar chart, each bar represents an individual auction (and hence the  value of that auction is the height of the bar), with different colors used to  represent the various terms (2, 3, 4, 5 years, etc). This gives us a bird’s eye  view of how the US Treasury has positioned all the debt issued. What it means is  everything to the left of the data date (‘now’) has matured (expired/retired)  and everything to the right is the forward liability.

Chart 1 2010 debt treasuries

We could cumulatively add these bars up to give us a debt maturity cash  flow (not done here).

To appreciate Chart 1 (the current debt position), and the recent changes to  the US debt structure, I have created a second chart showing what the debt  looked like at the beginning of 2008 (prior to the Great Financial Crisis). See below –

Chart 2 2008 debt treasuries

A comparison of the two charts above shows the obvious trends and how much and  where the US Treasury has placed the debt obligations by term and maturity date.  Essentially these charts create a cash flow schedule for the US Treasury — what  and how much comes due for repayment in the future.

Some rough numbers of debt issued in US Treasury Notes are as follows:

  • Issued in 2008 calendar year = US $919 Billion
  • Issued in 2009 calendar year = US $2.00 Trillion
  • Issued in 2010 so far = US $1.58 Trillion
  • Total issued since Jan 2008 = $4.50 Trillion

When you zoom in on the maturing (outstanding) debt, you can see that there  is plenty of wriggle room (empty space) for more debt to be positioned. As per Chart 3 (zoomed in)

Chart 3 ZOOMED debt treasuries

These charts show the debt legacy of 2009/10 now facing future generations. The questions are clear: How and when is the US going to produce a surplus to pay down the debt?

Note: These bars represent the principal only amounts of issued Notes, and do not indicate any amounts payable periodically of the interest yields, which varies per individual term duration of debt issued as either bills (<=1 year), notes (10years).


About atradersrant

Self-employed private trader of equities, commodities and FX for income and investment; Follow me at your own risk! I provide analysis of major market & economic trends .. with too much commentary on fraud and corruption that is rife in the open market.
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