Adding this weeks ECRI WLI public release below –
Bounced off the previous forecasted (Aug2011) 120 level. Now remains weak yet slightly positive – hardly a bastion of strength to champion a ‘recovery’ on. I’ll say the next 6 months are firmly down if 125 does not break in next 2-3 weeks.
Say if not above 125 before end March 2012 down into October 2012.
Doug Short puts out a weekly ECRI summary here. The ECRI growth rate chart is interesting when viewed through a set of Engineering spectacles. The ECRI growth from Doug’s post –
The chart above is a very clear excitation response which results from a step change induced onto a black box system. A resuscitation response (similar to a heart defibrillator) via a deliberately induced shock. In this case, it was $2Trillion in money base and several rounds of QE. The ECRI charts above show the response of a massive monetary effort to revive economic growth, only to remain negative.
If this were a heart patient, the prognosis remains negative. Best you be kept on life support until you can breathe on your own. You would be closely monitored for any signs of rapid deterioration.